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The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation. The opposite of normalcy bias would be overreaction, or "worst-case thinking" bias,〔Bruce Schneier, ("Worst-case thinking makes us nuts, not safe" ), CNN, May 12, 2010 (retrieved April 18, 2014); reprinted in (Schneier on Security ), May 13, 2010 (retrieved April 18, 2014)〕〔Dylan Evans, ("Nightmare Scenario: The Fallacy of Worst-Case Thinking" ), ''Risk Management,'' April 2, 2012 (retrieved April 18, 2014); from ''Risk Intelligence: How To Live With Uncertainty,'' by Dylan Evans, Free Press/Simon & Schuster, Inc., 2012; ISBN 9781451610901〕 in which small deviations from normality are dealt with as signaling an impending catastrophe. ==Effects== The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Normalcy bias can cause people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. The normalcy bias creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Normalcy bias」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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